Design for Reliability

WILEY SERIES IN QUALITY & RELIABILITY ENGINEERING

and related titles*

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Design for Reliability

Dev Raheja and Louis J. Gullo (Editors)

Copyright © 2012 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

Raheja, Dev.

Design for reliability / Dev Raheja & Louis J. Gullo.

p. cm.

ISBN 978-0-470-48675-7 (hardback)

1. Reliability (Engineering) I. Gullo, Louis J. II. Title.

TA169.R348 2011

620’.00452-dc23

2011042405

Printed in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

To my wife, Hema, and my children, Gauri, Pramod, and Preeti Dev Raheja

To my wife, Diane, and my children, Louis, Jr., Stephanie, Catherine, Christina, and Nicholas Louis J. Gullo

Contents

Contributors

Foreword

Preface

Introduction: What You Will Learn

1 Design for Reliability Paradigms

Dev Raheja

Why Design for Reliability?

Reflections on the Current State of the Art

The Paradigms for Design for Reliability

Summary

References

2 Reliability Design Tools

Joseph A. Childs

Introduction

Reliability Tools

Test Data Analysis

Summary

References

3 Developing Reliable Software

Samuel Keene

Introduction and Background

Software Reliability: Definitions and Basic Concepts

Software Reliability Design Considerations

Operational Reliability Requires Effective Change Management

Execution-Time Software Reliability Models

Software Reliability Prediction Tools Prior to Testing

References

4 Reliability Models

Louis J. Gullo

Introduction

Reliability Block Diagram: System Modeling

Example of System Reliability Models Using RBDs

Reliability Growth Model

Similarity Analysis and Categories of a Physical Model

Monte Carlo Models

Markov Models

References

5 Design Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis

Louis J. Gullo

Introduction to FMEA and FMECA

Design FMECA

Principles of FMECA-MA

Design FMECA Approaches

Example of a Design FMECA Process

Risk Priority Number

Final Thoughts

References

6 Process Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis

Joseph A. Childs

Introduction

Principles of P-FMECA

Use of P-FMECA

What Is Required Before Starting

Performing P-FMECA Step by Step

Improvement Actions

Reporting Results

Suggestions for Additional Reading

7 FMECA Applied to Software Development

Robert W. Stoddard

Introduction

Scoping an FMECA for Software Development

FMECA Steps for Software Development

Important Notes on Roles and Responsibilities with Software FMECA

Lessons Learned from Conducting Software FMECA

Conclusions

References

8 Six Sigma Approach to Requirements Development

Samuel Keene

Early Experiences with Design of Experiments

Six Sigma Foundations

The Six Sigma Three-Pronged Initiative

The RASCI Tool

Design for Six Sigma

Requirements Development: The Principal Challenge to System Reliability

The GQM Tool

The Mind Mapping Tool

References

9 Human Factors in Reliable Design

Jack Dixon

Human Factors Engineering

A Design Engineer’s Interest in Human Factors

Human-Centered Design

Human Factors Analysis Process

Human Factors and Risk

Human Error

Design for Error Tolerance

Checklists

Testing to Validate Human Factors in Design

References

10 Stress Analysis During Design to Eliminate Failures

Louis J. Gullo

Principles of Stress Analysis

Mechanical Stress Analysis or Durability Analysis

Finite Element Analysis

Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Methods and Failures

How Stress Analysis Aids Design for Reliability

Derating and Stress Analysis

Stress vs. Strength Curves

Software Stress Analysis and Testing

Structural Reinforcement to Improve Structural Integrity

References

11 Highly Accelerated Life Testing

Louis J. Gullo

Introduction

Time Compression

Test Coverage

Environmental Stresses of HALT

Sensitivity to Stresses

Design Margin

Sample Size

Conclusions

Reference

12 Design for Extreme Environments

Steven S. Austin

Overview

Designing for Extreme Environments

Designing for Cold

Designing for Heat

References

13 Design for Trustworthiness

Lawrence Bernstein and C. M. Yuhas

Introduction

Modules and Components

Politics of Reuse

Design Principles

Design Constraints That Make Systems Trustworthy

Conclusions

References and Notes

14 Prognostics and Health Management Capabilities to Improve Reliability

Louis J. Gullo

Introduction

PHM Is Department of Defense Policy

Condition-Based Maintenance vs. Time-Based Maintenance

Monitoring and Reasoning of Failure Precursors

Monitoring Environmental and Usage Loads for Damage Modeling

Fault Detection, Fault Isolation, and Prognostics

Sensors for Automatic Stress Monitoring

References

15 Reliability Management

Joseph A. Childs

Introduction

Planning, Execution, and Documentation

Closing the Feedback Loop: Reliability Assessment, Problem Solving, and Growth

References

16 Risk Management, Exception Handling, and Change Management

Jack Dixon

Introduction to Risk

Importance of Risk Management

Why Many Risks Are Overlooked

Program Risk

Design Risk

Risk Assessment

Risk Identification

Risk Estimation

Risk Evaluation

Risk Mitigation

Risk Communication

Risk and Competitiveness

Risk Management in the Change Process

Configuration Management

References

17 Integrating Design for Reliability with Design for Safety

Brian Moriarty

Introduction

Start of Safety Design

Reliability in System Safety Design

Safety Analysis Techniques

Establishing Safety Assessment Using the Risk Assessment Code Matrix

Design and Development Process for Detailed Safety Design

Verification of Design for Safety Includes Reliability

Examples of Design for Safety with Reliability Data

Final Thoughts

References

18 Organizational Reliability Capability Assessment

Louis J. Gullo

Introduction

The Benefits of IEEE 1624-2008

Organizational Reliability Capability

Reliability Capability Assessment

Design Capability and Performability

IEEE 1624 Scoring Guidelines

SEI CMMI Scoring Guidelines

Organizational Reliability Capability Assessment Process

Advantages of High Reliability

Conclusions

References

Index

Contributors

Steven S. Austin

Missile Defense Agency

Department of Defense

Huntsville, Alabama

Lawrence Bernstein

Stevens Institute of Technology

Hoboken, New Jersey

Joseph A. Childs

Missiles and Fire Control

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Orlando, Florida

Jack Dixon

Dynamics Research Corporation

Orlando, Florida

Louis J. Gullo

Missile Systems

Raytheon Company

Tucson, Arizona

Samuel Keene

Keene and Associates, Inc.

Lyons, Colorado

Brian Moriarty

Engility Corporation

Lake Ridge, Virginia

Dev Raheja

Raheja Consulting, Inc.

Laurel, Maryland

Robert W. Stoddard

Six Sigma IDS, LLC

Venetia, Pennsylvania

C.M. Yuhas

Foreword

The importance of quality and reliability to a system cannot be disputed. Product failures in the field inevitably lead to losses in the form of repair cost, warranty claims, customer dissatisfaction, product recalls, loss of sales, and in extreme cases, loss of life. Thus, quality and reliability play a critical role in modern science and engineering and so enjoy various opportunities and face a number of challenges.

As quality and reliability science evolves, it reflects the trends and transformations of technological support. A device utilizing a new technology, whether it be a solar power panel, a stealth aircraft, or a state-of-the-art medical device, needs to function properly and without failure throughout its mission life. New technologies bring about new failure mechanisms (chemical, electrical, physical, mechanical, structural, etc.), new failure sites, and new failure modes. Therefore, continuous advancement of the physics of failure, combined with a multi-disciplinary approach, is essential to our ability to address those challenges in the future.

In addition to the transformations associated with changes in technology, the field of quality and reliability engineering has been going through its own evolution: developing new techniques and methodologies aimed at process improvement and reduction of the number of design- and manufacturing-related failures.

The concept of design for reliability (DFR) has been gaining popularity in recent years and its development is expected to continue for years to come. DFR methods shift the focus from reliability demonstration and the outdated “test-analyze-fix” philosophy to designing reliability into products and processes using the best available science-based methods. These concepts intertwine with probabilistic design and design for six sigma (DFSS) methods, focusing on reducing variability at the design and manufacturing levels. As such, the industry is expected to increase the use of simulation techniques, enhance the applications of reliability modeling, and integrate reliability engineering earlier and earlier in the design process. DFR also transforms the role of the reliability engineer from being focused primarily on product test and analysis to being a mentor to the design team, which is responsible for finding and applying the best design methods to achieve reliability. A properly applied DFR process ensures that pursuit of reliability is an enterprise-wide activity.

Several other emerging and continuing trends in quality and reliability engineering are also worth mentioning here. For an increasing number of applications, risk assessment will enhance reliability analysis, addressing not only the probability of failure but also the quantitative consequences of that failure. Life-cycle engineering concepts are expected to find wider applications in reducing life-cycle risks and minimizing the combined cost of design, manufacturing, quality, warranty, and service. Advances in prognostics and health management will bring about the development of new models and algorithms that can predict the future reliability of a product by assessing the extent of degradation from its expected operating conditions. Other advancing areas include human and software reliability analysis.

Additionally, continuous globalization and outsourcing affect most industries and complicate the work of quality and reliability professionals. Having various engineering functions distributed around the globe adds a layer of complexity to design coordination and logistics. Moving design and production into regions with little knowledge depth regarding design and manufacturing processes, with a less robust quality system in place and where low cost is often the primary driver of product development, affects a company's ability to produce reliable and defect-free parts.

Despite its obvious importance, quality and reliability education is paradoxically lacking in today's engineering curriculum. Few engineering schools offer degree programs or even a sufficient variety of courses in quality or reliability methods. Therefore, a majority of quality and reliability practitioners receive their professional training from colleagues, professional seminars, and from a variety of publications and technical books. The lack of formal education opportunities in this field greatly emphasizes the importance of technical publications for professional development.

The real objective of the Wiley Series in Quality & Reliability Engineering is to provide a solid educational foundation for both practitioners and researchers in quality and reliability and to expand the reader's knowledge base to include the latest developments in this field. This series continues Wiley's tradition of excellence in technical publishing and provides a lasting and positive contribution to the teaching and practice of engineering.

Andre Kleyner

Editor

Wiley Series in Quality & Reliability Engineering

Preface

Design for reliability (DFR) has become a worldwide goal, regardless of the industry and market. The best organizations around the world have become increasingly intent on harvesting the value proposition for competing globally while significantly lowering life cycle costs. The DFR principles and methods are aimed proactively to prevent faults, failures, and product malfunctions, which result in cheaper, faster, and better products. In Japan, this tool is used to gain customer loyalty and customer trust. However, we still face some challenges. Very few engineering managers and design engineers understand the value added by design for reliability; they often fail to see savings in warranty costs, increased customer satisfaction, and gain in market share.

These facts, combined with the current worldwide economic challenges, have created perfect conditions for this science of engineering. This is an art also because many decisions have to be made not only on evidence-based data, but also on engineering creativity to design out failure at lower costs. Readers will be delighted with the wealth of knowledge because all contributors to this book have at least 20 years hands-on experience with these methods.

The idea for this book was conceived during our participation in the IEEE Design for Reliability Technical Committee. We saw the need for a DFR volume not only for hardware engineers, but also for software and system engineers. The traditional books on reliability engineering are written for reliability engineers who rely more on statistical analysis than on improvements in inherent design to mitigate hardware and software failures. Our book attempts to fill a gap in the published body of knowledge by communicating the tremendous advantages of designing for reliability during very early development phase of a new product or system. This volume fulfills the needs of entry-level design engineers, experienced design engineers, engineering managers, as well as the reliability engineers/managers who are looking for hands-on knowledge on how to work collaboratively on design engineering teams.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We would like to thank the IEEE Reliability Society for sowing the seed for this book, especially the encouragement from a former society president, Dr. Samuel Keene, who also contributed chapters in the book. We would like to recognize a few of the authors for conducting peer reviews of several chapters: Joe Childs, Jack Dixon, Larry Bernstein, and Sam Keene. We also thank the guest editors—Tim Adams, at NASA Kennedy Center, and Dr. Nat Jambulingam, at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center—who helped edit several chapters. We are grateful to Diana Gialo, at Wiley, who has always been gracious in helping and guiding us.

We acknowledge the contributions of the following:

Steve Austin (Chapter 12)

Larry Bernstein (Chapter 13)

Joe Childs (Chapters 2, 6, and 15)

Jim Dixon (Chapters 9 and 16)

Lou Gullo (Chapters 4, 5, 10, 11, 14, and 18)

Sam Keene (Chapters 3 and 8)

Brian Moriarty (Chapter 17)

Dev Raheja (Chapter 1)

Bob Stoddard (Chapter 7)

C. M. Yuhas (Chapter 13)

Dev Raheja

Louis J. Gullo

Introduction: What You will Learn

Chapter 1 Design for Reliability Paradigms (Raheja)

This chapter introduces what is means to design for reliability. It shows the technical gaps between the current state-of-art and what it takes to design reliability as a value proposition for new products. It gives real examples of how to get high return on investment to understand the art of design for reliability. The chapter introduces readers to the deeper level topics with eight practical paradigms for best practices.

Chapter 2 Reliability Design Tools (Childs)

This chapter summarizes reliability tools that exist throughout the product's life cycle from creation, requirements, development, design, production, testing, use and end of life. The need for tools in understanding and communicating reliability performance is also explained. Many of these tools are explained in further detail in the chapters that follow.

Chapter 3 Developing Reliable Software (Keene)

This chapter describes good design practices for developing reliable software embedded in most of the high technology products. It shows how to prevent software faults and failures often inherent in the design by applying evidence based reliability tools to software such as FMEA, capability maturity modeling, and software reliability modeling. It introduces the most popular software reliability estimation tool CASRE (Computer Aided Software Reliability Estimation).

Chapter 4 Reliability Models (Gullo)

This chapter is on reliability modeling, one of the most important tools for design for reliability in he early stages of design, to determine strategy for overall reliability. The chapter covers models for system reliability, component reliability, and shows the use of block diagrams in modeling. It discusses reliability growth process, similarity analysis used for physical modeling, and widely used models for simulation.

Chapter 5 Design Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (Gullo)

This chapter on FMECA contains the core knowledge for reliability analysis at system level, subsystem level and component level. The chapter shows how to perform risk assessment using a risk index called Risk Priority Number and shows how to eliminate single point failures making a design significantly less vulnerable. It explains the difference between FMEA and FMECA and how to us them for improving product performance and the maintenance effectiveness.

Chapter 6 Process Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (Childs)

The last chapter showed how to make design more robust. This chapter applies the FMEA tool to analyze a process for robustness such that the manufacturing defects are eliminated before the show p in production. The end result is improved product reliability with lower manufacturing costs. It covers step by step procedure to perform the analysis including the risk assessment using the Risk Priority Number.

Chapter 7 FMECA Applied to Software Development (Stoddard)

The FMEA tool is just as applicable to software design. There is very little literature on how to apply it to software. This chapter shows the details of how to use it to improve the software reliability. It covers the lessons learned and shows different ways of integrating the FMECA into the most widely used software development model known as “V” model. The chapter describes roles and responsibilities for proper use of this tool.

Chapter 8 Six Sigma Approach to Requirements Development (Keene)

In this chapter the author explains why Design of Experiments (DOE) is a sweet spot for identifying the key input variables to a Six Sigma programs. The chapter covers the origin of this program, the meaning of six sigma measurements, and how it is applied to improve the design. It then proceeds to cover the tools for designing the product for Six Sigma performance to reduce failure rates as close to zero as possible.

Chapter 9 Human Factors in Reliable Design (Dixon)

Humans are Often blamed for many product failures when in fact the fault lies in the insufficient attention to human factor engineering. This chapter covers the principles of human-centered design to make man-machine interface robust and error-tolerant. It covers how to perform the human factors analysis, and how to integrate it to make the product design user-friendly.

Chapter 10 Stress Analysis During Design to Eliminate Failures (Gullo)

This chapter explains why it is critical to reduce the design stress to improve durability as well as reliability. It introduces the concept of derating as a design tool. The author includes examples on electrical and mechanical stress analysis including how to apply this theory to software design. The chapter also shows how to apply Finite Element Analysis, a numerical technique, to solve specific design problems.

Chapter 11 Highly Accelerated Life Testing (Gullo)

Usually designers cannot predict what failures will occur for a new design. This chapter shows how highly accelerated life tests and highly accelerated stress tests can reveal the failure modes quickly. It covers how to design these tests and how to estimate the design margin from the test results. It shows different methods of accelerating the stresses.

Chapter 12 Design for Extreme Environments (Austin)

When a product is used in extreme cold or extreme heat such as in Alaska or in a desert in Arizona, we must design for such environments to assure product can last long enough. This chapter shows what factors need to be considered and how to design for each condition. It shows how lessons learned from space programs and overseas experience can help make products durable, reliable, and safe.

Chapter 13 Design for Trustworthiness (Bernstein and Yuhas)

This is a very important chapter because software design methods for reliability are not standardized yet. This chapter goes beyond reliability to design software such that it is also safe, and secure from errors in engineering changes which are very frequent. This chapter covers design methods and offers suggestions for improving the architecture, modules, interfaces, and using right policies for re-using the software. The chapter offers good design practices.

Chapter 14 Prognostics and Health Management Capabilities to Improve Reliability (Gullo)

Design for reliability practices should include detecting a malfunction before a product malfunctions. This chapter covers designing prognostics and product health monitoring principles that can b designed into the product. The result is enhanced system reliability. The chapter includes condition-based maintenance and time-based maintenance, use of failure precursors to signal an imminent failure event, and automatic stress monitoring to enhance prognosis.

Chapter 15 Reliability Management (Childs)

This chapter provides both motivation and guidance in outlining the importance of good reliability management. Management participation is the key to any successful reliability in design. It shows how to manage, plan, execute, and document the needs of the program during early design. It describes the important tasks, and closing the feedback loops after reliability assessment, problem solving, and reliability growth testing.

Chapter 16 Risk Management, Exception Handling, and Change Management (Dixon)

Many risks are overlooked in a product design. This chapter defines what is risk in engineering terms, how to predict risk, assess risk, and mitigate it. It highlights the role of risk management culture in mitigating risks and the critical role of configuration management for avoiding new risks from design changes. Included in this chapter is how to minimize oversights and omissions including requirement creeps.

Chapter 17 Integrating Design for Reliability with Design for Safety (Moriarty)

This chapter integrates reliability with safety, including how to design for safety. It covers several safety analysis techniques that equally apply to reliability. It shows the how a risk assessment code matrix is used widely in aerospace and many commercial products to make risk management decisions. It includes examples of risk reduction.

Chapter 18 Organizational Reliability Capability Assessment (Gullo)

This chapter describes the benefits of using IEEE 1624–2008 standard to describe how reliability capability of an organizational entity is determined by assessing eight key reliability practices and associated metrics. Management should know the capability of an organization to deliver a reliable product, which is defined as organizational reliability capability. It describes the process in detail with case studies.

Chapter 1

Design for Reliability Paradigms

Dev Raheja

Why Design for Reliability?

The science of reliability has not kept pace with user expectations. Many corporations still use MTBF (mean time between failures) as a measure of reliability, which, depending on the statistical distribution of failure data, implies acceptance of roughly 50 to 70% failures during the time indicated by the MTBF. No user today can tolerate such a high number of failures. Ideally, a user does not want any failures for the entire expected life! The life expected is determined by the life inferred by users, such as 100,000 miles or 10 years for an automobile, at least 10 years for kitchen appliances, and at least 20 years for a commercial airliner. Most commercial companies, such as automotive and medical device manufacturers, have stopped using the MTBF measure and aim at 1 to 10% failures during a self-defined time. This is still not in line with users' dreams. The real question is: Why not design for zero failures if we can increase profits and gain more market share? Zero failures implies zero mission-critical failures or zero safety-critical system failures. As a minimum, systems in which failures can lead to catastrophic consequences must be designed for zero failures. There are companies that are able to do this. Toyota, Apple, Gillette, Honda, Boeing, Johnson & Johnson, Corning, and Hewlett-Packard are a few examples.

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